Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Apple Blossom Handicap (G1)

 Who will bloom in the Apple Blossom Handicap?

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

Welcome back to Oaklawn Park to see older fillies and mares work their magic. Forecast is excellent, with a touch of early summer temperatures. Post time for race 11 is 5:46 PM CT.

Morning Line Favorites

#4 Adare Manor – Baffert/Hernandez J.J. – Winner of $1m in earnings with five wins and two seconds against Grade I or II company in eight attempts. She took time off after losing the BC Distaff last fall, then returned to finish second in Beholder Mile. Can't deny her favoritism in this one. Carries the high weight and has never been over the track. Not my top pick.

#3 Wet Paint – Cox/Prat - Hasn't been seen since a poor showing in the BC Distaff last fall. Apparently loves Oaklawn as she won three out of three against graded company last year at 3. $1.19m winner. The works are great, and I like her coming back after her hard 3-year-old campaign. Like her as a winner here.

#7 Honor D Lady – Joseph/Castellano – Coming off a win in the Royal Delta G3 at Gulfstream from the front after the second call. Gulfstream being what it is, it's hard to beat a strong front running style. That doesn't necessarily work at Oaklawn. She also faces the front end with a couple others here. Like her underneath.

 

The Field

#2 Taxed – Morse/Torres – lost to Wet Paint here three out of three, skipped the Kentucky Oaks, and won the Blackeyed Susan. After that, she declined in form and took a break from September until her return to Oaklawn, winning an optional claiming race and going 6 furlongs here in mid-March. She has never won at this distance. She doesn't give me the confidence she will be in the top money. Superfecta?

#6 Misty Veil – Maker/Vasquez  - She is a consistent ITM lifetime at Oaklawn and four-for-four since December. Last seen losing by a neck in the Azeri G2 on a tracking trip. She's 75% at the distance and 90% at Oaklawn. She'll carry 5 pounds less than top weight today. I'll play her underneath at 12-1 or better.

#8 Bellamor – Asmussen/Asmussen  - Came in third behind Misty Veil in the Azeri after drifting out and before that, won the Houston Lady Classic G3 after changing to Asmussen's barn. That was her first run at Oaklawn, but she has never been out of the money at the distance. Another logical to play underneath at 12-1.

#9 Shotgun Hottie – DeVaux/Lopez – This is where we see speed from the outside post. Lopez has been on this lady twice, and both were wins from or near the front. I expect Paco to do what Paco does and run the feet off others for the trip. She has been training here, and she has some fast times in her preps. She might be a win contender. Gotta love the name with Paco riding; it makes sense.

 

Longshots

#1 Feel Like a Girl – Pomier/Manrrique  - Don't know the trainer or jockey, but what I can tell you is the 5-year-old mare has $1.3m in the bank on an average of 9 races per year (mostly LS races), and when Manrrique was up last he missed by a neck to Ballamore in the Houston Lady Classic. She is one for two here, is 6 for 8 ITM at the distance, and 90% ITM for the last 10 races. These 20-1 ML odds horses with that kind of race record get overlooked. It says something about her mental ability to compete. At those odds, she has to be played with others. She'll carry the featherweight of the group. Top longshot!

#5 Flying Connection – Fincher/Santana  - This Nyquist filly can be a speedball, and from that post might be a factor for Honor D Lady and Shotgun Hottie. The issue for me is Oaklawn doesn't play well with frontrunners most of the time. She is a multiple-listed stakes winner and loves the distance where she is 3 for three but in her last attempts against graded stakes winners, she did not enjoy the company. If we see a battle up front, I don't think she's stay.

 

Handigambling  - I believe pace will deliver the outcome of this race. The frontrunners will try to wage a battle, and a mid-pack tracker will close in the long stretch to win. Let's keep today's wager around $60.

$1 Trifecta – 3 with 1,6,9 with All - $21

$.50 Trifecta – 1,6,9 with 3 with All - $10.50

$1 Exacta – All with 1 - $8

$1 Exacta – 1 with All -  $8

$16 to Show on 1

 

 

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Blue Grass Stakes (G1)

Dornoch & Sierra Leone headline  100th edition of Blue Grass Stakes 

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Hello racing friends, this Saturday, ThoroFan travels to Lexington, Kentucky for the $1 million Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes, an iconic springtime fixture for 3-year-olds, held at Keeneland racetrack. 

 

Eleven horses are set to go to post, including three from trainer Chad Brown and a pair from conditioner Brad Cox.

 

This year’s renewal marks the 100th running of the 1 1/8-mile race and is headlined by the top two finishers of last year’s G2 Remsen Stakes, Dornoch and Sierra Leone. As three-year-olds in 2024, both horses have acquitted themselves nicely on the Kentucky Derby trail, with the former winning the G2 Fountain of Youth and the latter having won the G2 Risen Star. The 50 points each horse earned winning their respective preps have basically assured them a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

 

For some other hopefuls looking to grab enough points to secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby to be run May 6th at Churchill Downs, this major test and steppingstone offers 200 points toward qualification on a 100-40-30-20-10 scale to the first-through fifth-place finishers.

 

Post time for the Blue Grass is scheduled for 5:52 p.m., E.S.T.

 

 

 

Let’s have a brief look at the field from the rail out.

 PP – Horse – Jockey/Trainer – ML -

1 - Top Conor – Jose Ortiz/Chad Brown – 15-1 - Twirling Candy colt was a debut winner at Gulfstream Park back in mid-February. He stalked the pace before drawing clear to win by two lengths. Deep waters here.

2 - Be You – Irad Ortiz/Todd Pletcher – 8-1 - Took six starts to break his maiden which he finally did last month at Gulfstream Park. This son of Curlin showed some promise as a juvenile last season finishing fourth, beating more than half the field in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga, and then was shipped out to Santa Anita where he finished third behind Muth in the American Paharoah Stakes.

3 - Seize the Grey – Nik Juarez/D. Wayne Lukas – 20-1 - The ‘Coach’ brings this son of Arrogate back on just two weeks rest following his race in the nine-furlong Jeff Ruby Stakes, where he sat mid-pack for much of the race before closing to grab the show spot at the wire. To his credit, he does have plenty of dirt experience.

4 - Dornoch – Luis Saez/Danny Gargan – 3-1 - After a couple of second place finishes in his first two starts, this son of Good Magic impressively broke his maiden at Keenland last fall. He then fought off Sierra Leone, after being passed by that rival, to win the G2 Remsen at Aqueduct in December. He started off his 3-year-old campaign easily taking the Fountain of Youth, where he was in control from the start, winning wire-to-wire.

5 - Good Money – Javier Castellano/Chad Brown – 20-1 - Another son of Good Magic. This colt was a first-time out winner at Tampa which earned him a shot in the Tampa Bay Derby where he led the field into the stretch through pedestrian fractions before tiring and fading to fourth, beaten less than a length.

6 - Just a Touch – Florent Geroux/Brad Cox – 7-2 - Son of Triple Crown winner, Justify, has made two lifetime starts, both on sloppy tracks. He was debut winner going six furlongs at Fairgrounds and then as the betting favorite he was runner-up Gotham Stakes. He makes his first start beyond one mile and gets tested around two turns here for the first time.

7 - Lat Long – Brian Hernandez/Ken McPeek – 30-1 - Son of Liam’s Map broke through maiden ranks in his fifth and final start of 2023 at Oaklawn Park. He comes off an even third-place finish in the Lecomte Stakes, his only start this season.

8 - Epic Ride – Adam Beschizza/John Ennis – 20-1 - First or second in all four starts, (2 wins, 2 seconds), all at Turfway Park, for the son of Blame. The Blue Grass Stakes will be his first attempt on dirt and in graded company.

9 - Mugatu – Joe Talamo/Jeff Engler – 30-1 - The most experienced horse in the group with eleven races, but only shows a maiden win. Subsequently, he couldn’t get the job done against allowance and lower stakes company. Unless a miracle happens, he won’t get a win picture taken here against graded company.

10 - Sierra Leone – Tyler Gafflione/Chad Brown – 2-1 - Gun Runner colt has raced just three times, but two of them are at nine furlongs, including the Remsen Stakes where he closed from 12-lengths back at the half mile mark, battled with Dornoch as both horses traded the lead back and forth through the stretch, before losing by a neck. His two-race prep campaign leaves little room for error, but the 50 points he received winning the Risen Star basically earned him a berth in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

11 - Encino – Flavien Prat/Brad Cox – 12-1 - Sired by Kentucky Derby winner, Nyquist, this Godolphin home-bred broke his maiden second time out then followed up winning the John Battaglia Stakes last month at Turfway Park beating Epic Ride by one length. All three lifetime races have been over the Turfway synthetic surface. He too tries dirt and graded stakes company here for the first time.

 

ANALYSIS

In my opinion, the most likely and logical winner of this race is either Dornoch or Sierra Leone. But what horse should be bet? Take the higher-priced horse. Usually, one horse will be an underlay, the other a low-priced overlay. If both horses are underlays, pass.

Bettors can consider Dornoch and Sierra Leone to have a relatively equal chance, and the rest of the field some chance. By this reasoning, either the Danny Gargan runner or the highly touted Chad Brown entrant is a fair win bet at 2-1 odds, an underlay below those odds, and an overlay at 5-2 or greater.

If exactas are to be bet, I urge the bettor to place the overlay on top of the underlay multiple times, and the underlay atop the overlay only as a saver.

If you play trifectas, Seize the Grey, Encino and Just a Touch are the logical ones to be used along with the top two.

Good luck and as always, enjoy the race! 

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Florida Derby (G1)

 Will Fierceness Spring Back in the Florida Derby?

By: Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)

As we enter the end of March, on Saturday at Gulfstream Park in Sunny Florida, we have the Grade 1 Florida Derby, a Grade 3 dirt race at 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds.

In order to qualify for entry into the Kentucky Derby, you must accumulate points earned in Derby Prep races. For this race, points are given to 1st place through 5th place (100, 50, 25, 15, 10). The Florida Derby will go off as Race 14 at 6:42 pm Eastern time. Here is a look at the 11-horse field.

Fierceness

(8-5) for Trainer Todd Pletcher and Owner Mike Repole will likely go off as the favorite. This colt finished 3rd at Gulfstream Park while Hades who won setting a slow pace. He did not show the brilliance he showed in earlier wins, including the Breeders Cup Juvenile.  However, He has been working out well since the Holy Bull defeat. If he runs his BC Juvenile race, he wins this race.  He will be coming out of the 10^th position in the starting gate. Veteran rider Johnny Velazquez is the Jockey. Look for Johnny V to waste no time getting Fierceness out early and near the leaders at the first turn.

Hades (7-2)

will be piloted by Paco Lopez. Trained by Joseph Orseno, this colt has 3 wins out of 3 starts, winning all three at Gulfstream Park, including the Holy Bull Stakes. His speed figures are only so-so but he does have an undefeated record. Some horses just find a way to win. I like his post position (2) and think he will sit just outside the leaders before making his move late. Also, Paco Lopez knows Gulfstream Park probably better than any jockey and is very comfortable here. He knows they already beat Fierceness last time out.

Le Dom Bro at 15-1 and has 4 seconds out of 4 starts over the Gulfstream Park. Ran an impressive 2^nd at the Fountain of Youth, going off as a 27-1 longshot. With relatively unknown trainer and jockey connections, I think this horse gets overlooked on the board and will sit close to his morning line odds. Had only one bad start out of six starts, on a muddy track at Aqueduct. His Sire is Mucho Macho Man, who always gave an honest effort, and we expect the same from his son. Look for Le Dom Bro to sit mid-pack before making his move late. A must-use in your exotics.

Looking at others you might want to look at Frankie’s Empire at 12-1. He was third in the Fountain of Youth (at Gulfstream) and beat le Dom Bro at 7 furlongs when he won the Swale Stakes.  Worth putting into your trifecta and superfecta box selections. His sire is Classic Empire who has an impressive 23% dirt route winners.

 

Summary

If you believe in Fierceness, he rebounds and wins this, unless you just toss him and hope to get lucky with Hades and others. For us, we will believe in Fierceness and think Johnny V puts him in position for a win. We will go with a straight-win bet and hope we hit the Tri.

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$50-win Fierceness

$2Trifecta Box: Fierceness, Hades, Le Dom Bro, Frankie’s Empire (total bet $48)

$2 place: Le Dom Bro

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Louisiana Derby (G2)

 Louisiana Derby: Will pace make the race?

By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers Off

The Fair Grounds spur of the Kentucky Derby trail draws to a close with the Louisiana Derby (G2) on Saturday, March 23. The race covers 1 3/16 miles, the longest of any Kentucky Derby points race in the United States, and the rewards are big: a $1 million purse, and 100-50-25-15-10 Road to the Kentucky Derby points for the top five finishers. This means a guaranteed spot in the Kentucky Derby for the winner, a likely slot for the second-place finisher, and a nudge up the standings for the next three horses across the wire.

The Louisiana Derby is the last of four points races during the Fair Grounds meet. The Gun Runner, the newest race in the series, began it in December. It was followed by the two traditional local lead-ins for the race, the Lecomte (G3) in January and the Risen Star (G2) in February. The star of this sequence has been Track Phantom, who won the Gun Runner and the Lecomte before falling just short in the Risen Star. Track Phantom leads the Louisiana Derby, while Sierra Leone does not return to New Orleans this weekend.

Only two Louisiana Derby winners have won the Kentucky Derby: Louisiana legend Black Gold in 1924 and Lil E. Tee in 1992. More recently, Louisiana Derby's fourth-place finisher Country House (2019), took the roses with him, and sixth place Mandaloun (2021) was also placed first in the Kentucky Derby. Louisiana Derby winner Epicenter (2022) ran second in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness as the favorite and went on to win the Travers (G1) and champion 3-year-old honors.

Saturday, March 23 - Fair Grounds

Race 12: Louisiana Derby (G2), three-year-olds, one and three sixteenths miles on the dirt, post time 5:42pm CST

The pace setup for the Louisiana Derby is an interesting one. There isn’t a complete lack of speed, but there is less than one might expect for a 12-horse field, as well.

Track Phantom has a good chance of proving the speed of the speed and has shown some ability to battle early and go on, though he is mired on the far outside. That could lead to some serious ground loss, and that concern is exacerbated by the fact that he finished the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star – where he also drew wide – as if he still has some distance questions to answer in this 1 3/16-mile test. It would be no surprise to see this Steve Asmussen-Joel Rosario production run well, but the price will be too short to love him on top.

As long as Antiquarian can avoid trip trouble early, given his relative inside draw, Track Phantom’s parking-lot post is Antiquarian’s gain. He did not lead at the first call in either of his races, but he showed enough pace to be very close to the leader. He may be fast enough to wrest the lead outright under regular rider John Velazquez, and even if someone else guns it, he should be involved from start to finish. Experience is the question as he has only faced maidens, but even that resume reveals some class. On debut, he was narrowly caught by legitimate Florida Derby (G1) prospect Conquest Warrior. Next out, he won by a length over Cornishman, who has already returned to win at the maiden special weight level. Trainer Todd Pletcher already has five wins in the Louisiana Derby, and Antiquarian is in the running to become his sixth at a nice price.

However, top honors go to Honor Marie. Though the Whit Beckman trainee finished only fifth in the Risen Star and never looked a winner, he was making up some ground late. It was reminiscent of his other sloppy-track start, a well-beaten allowance-level second at Churchill last year. His better efforts have come over a dry track, something he is likely to get on Saturday. Even though he is an off-pace type in a race where a fiery front end will not happen, his Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) win tells the tale. That day, he made an early run into a modest pace, putting himself in contention in time to win by open lengths. If sharp local rider Ben Curtis can work that kind of trip with him, it has every right to work again. Furthermore, his pedigree suggests he will love every step of the distance and perhaps even more.

Selections:

#7 Honor Marie (8-1)

#3 Antiquarian (12-1)

#12 Track Phantom (3-1)

Longshot: #9 Real Men Violin (20-1) has to bounce back from a flat eighth in the Risen Star, but trainer Ken McPeek tends to have horses much sharper coming second off the lay. His form at age two suggests that he can be closer to the early pace than he was in the Risen Star and the one other time Corey Lanerie took the reins, that is exactly how he rode Real Men Violin. Add to it the fact that his pedigree has some upside for the stretch out in distance, and there are enough positives to include Real Men Violin as the price horse for exotic wagers in the Louisiana Derby.